Everything We Know About the New Variant of COVID-19

A new variant of the coronavirus, first detected in the United Kingdom, has prompted dozens of travel bans and strict, tier four mixing rules for millions of people in England, Scotland, and Wales. 

The new variant has already been detected in countries such as Canada, Denmark, Belgium, Italy, Australia, and the Netherlands. A similar but independent variant has been identified in South Africa. 

What does this new variant mean for the rest of the world? How has it gone from being non-existent to becoming the dominant form of the virus in parts of Europe? Let’s take a look at which questions scientists have been able to answer so far. 

Public health officials now have high confidence that the new variant of COVID-19 is better able to transmit than other variants. Experts estimate that the new variant may be up to 70% more transmissible. 

This particular variant was first detected in September. By November, it was responsible for roughly a quarter of cases in London, escalating to two-thirds of cases by December. 

Teasing apart people’s behavior and viral characteristics can be challenging. New strains can become more common simply by appearing in the right place at the right time. London, which only had tier two restrictions until recently, may have acted as the ideal breeding ground. 

While scientists do not have absolute certainty that the new variant is more infectious, there is some evidence that this may be the case, including:

• The new variant is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus 
• The new variant hosts mutations that affect important parts of the virus 
• Some of these mutations have already been shown in the lab to promote greater infection of healthy cells 

While more laboratory experimentation is necessary to build a solid case that the new variant can spread more easily, what it has demonstrated so far has been enough to re-introduce lockdown restrictions, travel bans, and similar measures to limit its spread. 

Experts believe that the new variant either originated in the UK or had been imported from a country less able to monitor coronavirus mutations. So far, the variant can be found across the UK, with the exception of Northern Ireland. Most cases are concentrated in London. 

Public Health England performed a backward tracing analysis using genetic evidence and found that the variant first emerged in England in September, circulating at relatively low levels until roughly mid-November. 

Data from Nextstrain, an open-source project that involves the monitoring and analysis of the genomes of viral samples taken from around the world, suggest that cases in Australia and Denmark originated from the UK. 

The coronavirus has mutated before. In fact, the Centers for Disease Control stated that the virus mutates its genome every two weeks. However, most of these mutations are inconsequential. 

The virus that originated in Wuhan is not the exact same virus we’re seeing around the world today. In February, the D614G mutation emerged in Europe and rapidly became the globally dominant form of the virus. Another mutation, the A222V mutation, was linked to summer holidays in Spain. 

At least 40 countries have now banned passenger travel from the UK, including Russia, Chile, Canada, Italy, Iran, and Sweden. While the US has yet to enact a travel ban, several major airlines have made it mandatory for passengers to get tested for COVID-19 prior to boarding planes from the UK to New York. 

Scientists have conducted an initial analysis of the new variant, identifying 17 potentially significant alterations. Changes have been made to the spike protein, the part of the virus that lets it attach to healthy cells. 

One mutation, called N501Y, alters the most important part of the spike protein—the receptor-binding domain. Experts believe that changes in this part of the virus are likely to lend a helping hand when it comes to ease of infection. 

Another mutation, an H69/V70 deletion, involves the removal of a small part of the spike protein, a mutation that has emerged previously in COVID-infected mink. Lab experiments have found that this mutation may double infectivity and could hinder antibody protection. 

Most COVID-19 cases from the new variant have been identified in people under 60 years of age. This may be problematic as people who are asymptomatic tend to fall under the same age category. This may be part of the reason why this particular variant is spreading so rapidly. 

There is no evidence to suggest that leading vaccines will not work against the new variant. While more research is needed, rapidly increasing transmission will be enough to overwhelm local hospitals, leading to a potentially fatal shortage in resources. 

All three leading vaccines have been designed to provoke an immune response against the existing spike protein, training the body’s defenses to attack different parts of it so that, even though it’s mutated, the body will still recognize and eliminate it as a threat. 

Instead, experts are worried about the accumulation of mutations over time. The virus may be headed toward what’s known as vaccine escape, in which a virus changes enough to counteract the full effect of a vaccine and continue to infect people. 

The new variant could also mean that more people will need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. If the virus becomes more efficient at infecting people, a higher vaccination rate will be required to ensure that normal life can continue without interruption. 

Luckily, staying protected from the new variant will involve the same measures we’ve relied on over recent months, including social distancing, mask-wearing, temperature checks, and related precautions.